International Monetary Fund keeps PH growth outlook
19 April, 2017, 01:47 | Author: Jacqueline Ellis
The fund's semi-annual World Economic Outlook report revised global growth up to 3.5 percent for this year, one-tenth higher than the January forecast.
Obstfeld said, the growth will be broad based across advanced, emerging, and lowincome economies, building on gains seen in both manufacturing and trade, adding, "our new projection for 2017 is marginally higher than what we expected in our last update".
In an interview with the Leading European Newspapers Alliance, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that in the long run it makes sense for the Greek primary budget surplus to amount to 1.5 percent of GDP, contrary to the German view in favor of a 3.5 percent primary surplus. The U.K.'s bump-up was the biggest, a 0.5 percentage point increase to 2% for the year.
That puts Britain among the fastest growing advanced economies this year, trailing closely behind the U.S. and Spain, which are expected to grow 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively.
"If that doesn't materialize as expected, we would have to revise", said Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF's chief economist during a press briefing, noting that "fiscal stimulus as of now is a work in progress" with "many components being debated". Forecast for emerging market and developing economies remained unchanged from January, at 4.5 percent for 2017 and 4.8 percent for 2018, more than double the growth rates for advanced economies.
"The world economy may be gaining momentum, but we can not be sure that we are out of the woods", said Obstfeld. "Commodity prices have firmed since early 2016, but at low levels, and many commodity exporters remain challenged - notably in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America", Obstfeld said.
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However, Obstfeld noted, a number of countries will continue to struggle as a result of low commodity prices, extreme weather or unrest. They include "the threat of deepening geopolitical tensions", the possibility that rising US interest rates will squeeze economic growth and rattle financial markets and the threat that protectionist measures will damage global trade.
Britain's post-referendum economic prospects were given a new boost today when the International Monetary Fund gave the United Kingdom a bigger growth forecast upgrade than any other major country.
Following the release of its World Economic Outlook, IMF Resident Representative for the Philippines Shanaka Jayanath Peiris said they are retaining their 6.8-percent growth forecast for the Philippines this year.
"Global economic activity is picking up speed, but the potential for disappointments remains high, and momentum is unlikely to be sustained in the absence of efforts by policymakers to implement the right set of policies and avoid missteps", the International Monetary Fund said.
And French vehicle parts maker Faurecia SA said first-quarter sales rose 9.8% on strong growth in the USA and China. These could in turn spill over to other countries.
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